Liberal, Irreverent

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Libya revolution WAS destined to fail

The upraising in Libya was destined to fail because it lacked some of the 3 necessary elements to succeed: popular revolt, stand down of the military, government willing to yield to the inevitable (given the previous 2 elements). That is why the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt succeeded but failed in Bahrein and Yemen.

Now the we have intervened, the revolution may succeed. The problem is that the United States and its new coalition of the willing decided to intervene under a "humanitarian" cover, but the humanitarian help as of now, has been showering the country with remote controlled Tomahawks and destroying the Libyan army. This looks more like an intervention to help one side of the conflict (the rebel army) than helping civilians, and that's illegal mingling in the internal affairs of a sovereign country.

I want all dictators toppled and democracy to flourish but that has to come organically from the grassroots inside the country, with broad support from all sectors, the people, the government, the military. Otherwise that country is not ready yet and forcing democracy will just lead us into another Iraq.

Another unanswered question is why there is intervention in Libya under the cover of a humanitarian UN Resolution, when similar abuses are happening in the other countries and we are doing nothing.

This Libya intervention is more about politics, egos, grandiose and saving face than anything else. And I just hope we learned the lessons of Iraq and have a strong leadership ready to assume control of the country after Gaddafi, because otherwise Libya will sink into chaos and then ground troops and nation building will be next step. Just another Iraq and another trillion dollar$ wasted when we are firing teachers and closing schools at home.

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